Fecha Publicación: 07-07-2025

A ceasefire between Israel and Iran was temporarily accepted on June 24 after 12 days of war, in an existential Hamlet momentum. Although the broader crisis remains unresolved, its geopolitical repercussions include Tehran needing to adjust its strategic calculus, which requires long-term recalibration. However, continued operations in non-conventional domains and grey-zone tactics – such as kinetic strikes, proxy engagement, cyber operations, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) assets, and hybrid deterrence—have resulted in a fragile distention. These forms of confrontation were part of the regional environment prior to this escalation, and they will likely persist, accompanied by a new understanding of the limits of airstrikes on urban areas and the deployment of advanced weaponry, including long-range ballistic missiles. While overt conflict may be temporarily restrained, strategic competition will endure through indirect and adaptive means.

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