Fecha Publicación: 04-06-2024

Q: Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party was elected Mexico’s first female president on Sunday in a landslide. She defeated Xóchitl Gálvez of the National Action Party and Jorge Máynez of the Citizens’ Movement party, both of whom conceded. Also on Sunday, Mexicans voted for more than 20,000 local, state and congressional candidates, and the ruling party is projected to have also won both chambers of Congress. What are the biggest challenges facing Sheinbaum when she takes office on Oct. 1? What are the main initiatives she is likely to push, and to what extent will her policies differ from that of her predecessor and mentor, outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador? How well will she be able to work with Mexico’s Congress, and with other countries, including the United States?

A: Andrés Rozental, member of the Advisor board, president of Rozental & Asociados and former deputy foreign minister of Mexico: “In addition to the presidency, voters gave Morena and its coalition partners a qualified majority of legislators in both houses of Congress, which will result in AMLO being able to pass constitutional amendments in the new Congress before he leaves office. Morena also swept most of the nine governorships that were in play and kept its hold on Mexico City. Sheinbaum faces all the same problems Mexico has had during AMLO’s presidency: a stagnant economy, extraordinary levels of violence in many of the country’s states, a highly polarized society with an increasing presence of organized crime and the ever-present issue of relations with the United States. Whether her policies will differ fundamentally from those of her predecessor is an open question. During the campaign, Sheinbaum was indistinguishable from López Obrador, but once she assumes office we don’t really know what her specific priorities will be, nor how much influence the former president is likely to want to have on her. With both houses of Congress comfortably in the hands of Morena and its affiliated parties, Sheinbaum will have no problem passing her legislative priorities. I expect that one area in which the president-elect might differ from López Obrador is in Mexico’s relations with other countries, especially with the United States. The 2026 revision of the USMCA is already on the agenda in all three North American countries, and the bilateral issues of migration, violence and drugs will be ongoing concerns in Mexico’s relations with Washington.”

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