Fecha Publicación: 11-04-2024

In a year in which about half of the adult population in the world will vote and several national elections are set to be dramatic, Mexico is a puzzle. On June 2, the country will vote for president, 128 federal senators and 500 congresspeople, governors in nine states (including Mexico City), and local congresses and municipalities—all in all, a whopping 20,000 public offices will be up for grabs. Moreover, as happens every 12 years, electoral cycles in Mexico and the U.S. will coincide, and the former is bound to become an “electoral piñata” in the latter’s own acrimonious race.

Yet, markets would suggest Mexico is an oasis of tranquility, a “boring long,” so to speak. After rallying by 15% against the U.S. dollar in 2023, the Mexican peso has posted an additional 2.1% gain this year, the only major currency still outperforming the mighty greenback. Credit default swaps (CDS), which measure the cost of insuring against a government defaulting on its debts, tell a similar story: at 92 points, they are significantly lower than Brazil’s (144) and Colombia’s (149) and have been hovering below the 100 mark for the last 12 months.

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