Fecha Publicación: 23-03-2022

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has altered our future. We thought 2022 would be all about a gradual “return to normal” after two grueling years of devastating pandemic. Instead, we find ourselves trying to figure out a new world order. The Spring of 2022 is one of those moments in history when the immediate future is highly uncertain, yet we know beyond doubt that a new medium-term trajectory has been irretrievably set in motion.

Ironically, one of its features is a declining role for Russia in global affairs. What Vladimir Putin attempted as a show of force has turned out to be a display of weakness. Even if Kyiv falls tomorrow, it is now clear that a permanent occupation of Ukraine is not feasible, as it would bleed Russia militarily and financially. With hindsight, Putin offered an autocratic, centralized answer to the Russian dilemma. Namely, how to manage a nation whose population peaked thirty years ago, and yet spans 11 time zones with most of its natural riches located east of the Urals. A pariah in the West and unable to guarantee territorial integrity by force, Putin´s Russia will be unable to resist the formidable gravitational pull from the Chinese economy and is set to gravitate around it.

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